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Football Metrics

Misc

General

  • Misc
    • Stats like “yards per rush” can be less informative based on how many games that include garbage time a team has.
      • e.g. Georgia may be ranked lower in rushing yards per play than Ohio State but Ohio State’s numbers might be inflated because they played a weak schedule and blew out more teams than Georgia.
    • Clavio doesn’t like PFF grades for TEs and WRs as he feels they don’t capture enough to be informative.
    • FEI ratings are normally distributed, and one standard deviation is approximately 0.6 on the FEI rating scale, calibrated to equate to a scoring advantage or disadvantage on a neutral field of 0.6 points per possession. (source)
    • In terms of the FEI ranking scale (end-of-season FEI), and now with nearly 140 FBS teams: (source)
      • Average Team - Ranks in the mid-60s
      • Good Team - Ranks in the mid-20s (one standard deviation better than the avg team)
      • Elite Team - Ranks around 5th (two standard deviations better than the avg team)
      • National Champions - Sometimes push into three-sigma (three standard deviations above average) territory.
    • Luck metrics can be useful in win total prediction
      • Example: 2025 Houston (9-3) (source)
        • Easiest schedule in the Big 12 (ranked 73rd at the end of the regular season)
        • +12 swing year over year in turnover margin (though they didn’t do nearly enough with those takeaways)
        • Successful play and explosive play rates profiled almost exactly the same as NC State — a team that won 7 regular-season games
        • 6-1 in one-possession games, 4-1 in games decided by a field goal or less, and won 5 games when tied or behind in the fourth quarter
        • Therefore, the luck metrics indicate a lower win total than the 9 in 2025. With the o/u at 8.5 for 2026, the under might be a good bet.
  • Individual
    • Career Snaps - The number of plays participated in
  • Team
    • Average Starting Field Position (e.g. Own 25.5)
    • Conversion
      • Late Down
    • Efficiency (EF)
      • Pass Blocking Efficiency (PBE) - The number of pressures allowed per pass protection snap with sacks weighted more heavily
      • Tackling Efficiency - The number of tackles per “would-be sure” tackling opportunity
    • Eckel Rate - How often your offense [defense] generates [allows] a big play touchdown or a first down inside the 40 on any given drive.
    • Eckel Ratio - The percent of total first downs and big play touchdowns in a game that you control
    • EP (Expected Points) - Assigns point values to field positions based on down, distance, and yard line. A negative value means the opponent is expected to score next.
    • EPA (Expected Points Added) -Uses EP to measure play impact by calculating the change in EP from the start to end of a play
      • per Play or Dropback
      • per Rush
      • Early Downs
    • Explosive Play Rate - Percentage of plays greater than or equal to 20 passing yds or 15 rushing yds
    • Garbage Time - When one of the following is true:
      • Lead > 38 points in 2nd quarter
      • Lead > 28 points in 3rd quarter
      • Lead > 22 points in 4th quarter
    • Hidden Yards (for vs against, vs efficiency) - Sum of net punt yards, kickoffs, accepted penalties, and turnover returns
      • 100 Hidden Yards = 7 points (per Parcells definition)
    • Line Yards
      • per Rush
    • Points
      • per Play
      • per Drive
      • per Scoring Opportunity
      • per Eckel - What an offense [defense] does [allows] given that you [your opponent] has a big play touchdown or a first down inside the 40
    • PPA - Predicted Points Added; The net point value that a player relative to the down and field position
      • Equivalent to EPA but uses CollegeFootballData.com’s custom model (what that model is… ¯\_(ツ)_/¯)
    • Success Rate is:
      • 1st Down: Gain \(40\%\) of yards to go.
      • 2nd Down: Gain \(60\%\) of yards to go.
      • 3rd/4th Down: Gain \(100\%\) of yards to go (convert).
      • Standard Downs : First downs, second-and-7 or less and third- or fourth-and-4 or less
      • Categories: Passing, Rushing, Early-Down, 3rd Down, etc.
      • per EPA (e.g. Early Down Success / EPA)
    • Yards
      • per Point
  • Luck
    • Points off Turnover Margin (and YoY change)
    • Fumble Recovery Rate
    • Red-Zone Production
    • Third-and-Short Production
    • Avg Starting Field Position
    • Close Game Record

Offense

  • QB
    • Accuracy Rate Over Expected (AROE)
      • PFF metric that doesn’t seem to be available anymore but not sure
      • Uses an XGBoost model with depth of target, standard of coverage (coverage on receiver, e.g. tight or wide open) and other metrics (I assume) to predict an expected accuracy rate value.
      • Using AROE is more predictive than completion percentage over expected (CPOE), as it doesn’t need the receiver to complete their side of the pass.
        • This explanation is unclear. If completions aren’t a factor then how is “accuracy” calculated? (within a certain catch radius?). Unfortunately, I only found 1 or two PFF articles that mention it and they were from like 2021.
    • Completion Percentage
      • Adjusted Completion Percentage
        • Adjusted completion percentage takes box-score completion percentage to the next level. The formula: ((Completions + Drops) / (Attempts – Throw Aways – Spikes – Batted Passes – Hit As Thrown)).
        • Removing throwaways, spikes, batted passes and passes released while being hit creates a completion percentage that’s more indicative of quarterback accuracy and success.
      • Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
        • An accuracy metric that seeks to place completions into the context of their air yards, receiver separation, the pass width and whether or not the quarterback was pressured in addition to game situation variables such as down, distance, yard line, time remaining, etc
        • Looks like the same model as AROE except only uses completed passes.
        • Flaws (when comparing QBs) (source)
          • Doesn’t include the quarterback’s rushing ability nor consider sacks in the equation
          • Doesn’t truly grasp an interception’s impact because it’s just counted as a regular incompletion with a negative CPOE
        • This gives QBs credit for unexpected completions and penalizes them for unexpected incompletions.
  • Offensive Line
    • HIT - Hits on the QB
    • QBH - Hurries where a QB is forced to throw early or scramble
    • OPP - Opportunities (aka snaps, reps)
    • PEN - Penalties
    • PR - Pressures Allowed which is sacks + hits + hurries
    • SK - Sacks Allowed
  • Receiving
    • 1st - Number of First Downs
    • ADOT - Average Depth of Target
    • CTT - Contested Targets
    • CCR - Contested Catch Rate
    • DRP - Drop Rate
    • Drop Rate Over Expected (DROE)
      • Measures the percentage of catchable passes dropped by a receiver compared to what would typically be expected in similar situations. It helps evaluate a receiver’s reliability and performance in catching passes
      • High DROE often indicates receivers are dropping throws despite good placement, or that high pass velocity (a “fastball”) makes target completion harder than predicted.
    • MTF - Missed Tackles Forced
    • Wide Receiver Rating
      • Takes into account the total targeted passes to one receiver, the amount of receptions, yards, touchdowns and interceptions on those throws, and gives a rating on a scale of 0.0 to 158.3, the higher the rating the better.

Defense

  • General
    • AT (Assisted Tackles)
    • FF - Forced Fumbles
    • Havoc Rate - Percentage of plays that result in a disruptive negative event. It includes: tackles for loss (TFL), sacks, forced fumbles, interceptions, and pass break ups (PBU).
    • MT% - Missed Tackle Percentage
    • PBU - Pass Break-Ups
    • R% - Reception Percentage; receptions per target
    • ST (Solo Tackles)
    • Stop Rate - The percentage of rushing plays in which the defender successfully beats his blocker so he’s in better position to stop the runner; disrupts the pocket or running lane by pushing his blocker backward; contains the runner such that he must adjust his running lane; or recording a tackle within 3 yards of the line of scrimmage. (ESPN)
    • Win Rate - The percentage of pass-rush plays in which the defender successfully pressures or sacks the quarterback. More specifically, how often a pass rusher is able to beat/win his block within 2.5 seconds (ESPN)
    • YPR - Yards per Reception
  • Cornerbacks
    • Adjusted Passer Rating When Targeted (source)
      • Removes off-target throws and dropped passes from the data set, which naturally inflates values but does a better job of describing what cornerbacks have done on targeted passes.