Football

Misc

Metrics

  • Misc
    • Stats like “yards per rush” can be less informative based on how many games that include garbage time a team has.
      • e.g. Georgia may be ranked lower in rushing yards per play than Ohio State but Ohio State’s numbers might be inflated because they played a weak schedule and blew out more teams than Georgia.
    • Clavio doesn’t like PFF grades for TEs and WRs as he feels they don’t capture enough to be informative.
    • FEI ratings are normally distributed, and one standard deviation is approximately 0.6 on the FEI rating scale, calibrated to equate to a scoring advantage or disadvantage on a neutral field of 0.6 points per possession. (source)
    • In terms of the FEI ranking scale (end-of-season FEI), and now with nearly 140 FBS teams: (source)
      • Average Team - Ranks in the mid-60s
      • Good Team - Ranks in the mid-20s (one standard deviation better than the avg team)
      • Elite Team - Ranks around 5th (two standard deviations better than the avg team)
      • National Champions - Sometimes push into three-sigma (three standard deviations above average) territory.
    • Luck metrics can be useful in win total prediction
      • Example: 2025 Houston (9-3) (source)
        • Easiest schedule in the Big 12 (ranked 73rd at the end of the regular season)
        • +12 swing year over year in turnover margin (though they didn’t do nearly enough with those takeaways)
        • Successful play and explosive play rates profiled almost exactly the same as NC State — a team that won 7 regular-season games
        • 6-1 in one-possession games, 4-1 in games decided by a field goal or less, and won 5 games when tied or behind in the fourth quarter
        • Therefore, the luck metrics indicate a lower win total than the 9 in 2025. With the o/u at 8.5 for 2026, the under might be a good bet.
  • Individual
    • Career Snaps - The number of plays participated in
  • Team
    • Average Starting Field Position (e.g. Own 25.5)
    • Conversion
      • Late Down
    • Efficiency (EF)
      • Pass Blocking Efficiency (PBE) - The number of pressures allowed per pass protection snap with sacks weighted more heavily
      • Tackling Efficiency - The number of tackles per “would-be sure” tackling opportunity
    • Eckel Rate - How often your offense [defense] generates [allows] a big play touchdown or a first down inside the 40 on any given drive.
    • Eckel Ratio - The percent of total first downs and big play touchdowns in a game that you control
    • EP (Expected Points) - Assigns point values to field positions based on down, distance, and yard line. A negative value means the opponent is expected to score next.
    • EPA (Expected Points Added) -Uses EP to measure play impact by calculating the change in EP from the start to end of a play
      • per Play or Dropback
      • per Rush
      • Early Downs
    • Explosive Play Rate
    • Garbage Time - When one of the following is true:
      • Lead > 38 points in 2nd quarter
      • Lead > 28 points in 3rd quarter
      • Lead > 22 points in 4th quarter
    • Line Yards
      • per Rush
    • Points
      • per Play
      • per Drive
      • per Scoring Opportunity
      • per Eckel - What an offense [defense] does [allows] given that you [your opponent] has a big play touchdown or a first down inside the 40
    • PPA - Predicted Points Added; The net point value that a player relative to the down and field position
      • Equivalent to EPA but uses CollegeFootballData.com’s custom model (what that model is… ¯\_(ツ)_/¯)
    • Success Rate is:
      • 1st Down: Gain \(40\%\) of yards to go.
      • 2nd Down: Gain \(60\%\) of yards to go.
      • 3rd/4th Down: Gain \(100\%\) of yards to go (convert).
      • Standard Downs : First downs, second-and-7 or less and third- or fourth-and-4 or less
      • Categories: Passing, Rushing, Early-Down, 3rd Down, etc.
      • per EPA (e.g. Early Down Success / EPA)
    • Yards
      • per Point
  • Luck
    • Points off Turnover Margin (and YoY change)
    • Fumble Recovery Rate
    • Red-Zone Production
    • Third-and-Short Production
    • Avg Starting Field Position
    • Close Game Record
  • Offense
    • Offensive Line
      • HIT - Hits on the QB
      • QBH - Hurries where a QB is forced to throw early or scramble
      • OPP - Opportunities (aka snaps, reps)
      • PEN - Penalties
      • PR - Pressures Allowed which is sacks + hits + hurries
      • SK - Sacks Allowed
    • Receiving
      • 1st - Number of First Downs
      • ADOT - Average Depth of Target
      • CTT - Contested Targets
      • CCR - Contested Catch Rate
      • DRP - Drop Rate
      • MTF - Missed Tackles Forced
  • Defense
    • Havoc Rate - Percentage of plays that result in a disruptive negative event. It includes: tackles for loss (TFL), sacks, forced fumbles, interceptions, and pass break ups (PBU).
    • ST (Solo Tackles), AT (Assisted Tackles)
    • MT% - Missed Tackle Percentage
    • R% - Reception Percentage; receptions per target
    • YPR - Yards per Reception
    • PBU - Pass Break-Ups
    • FF - Forced Fumbles